Crash? What Crash?
CRASH? What crash? I almost certainly ask this question every few months.
If we start from a position that Bitcoin quite frequently drops 15-25%, then the latest turmoil only equates to just under 15% followed by a climb back of about 9%.
Move along there, nothing to see here.
Things were not quite so sanguine elsewhere. Ethereum dropped more than 38% before clawing back a little. And swathes of other altcoins took what I would describe as a real hammering.
Amidst all this please note that USDT (Tether) never missed a beat as billions of dollars were flushed through liquidations at all levels. Some exchanges had some issues but the biggies pretty much operated normally and efficiently. The total crypto market dropped over $1trillion, so that’s some now poor people staring at some very nasty losses.
But why? What made such a sink hole open up all of a sudden? OK DeepSeek rattled a few cages (but believe me it’s not that great and the story is complete twaddle). I’ll go back to what I said in an earlier article – crypto people are very impatient and (believe it or not) very risk averse. To that end they set stop loss limits, which, in a falling market, get taken out like climbers pitons which haven’t been properly hammered in. The last one pops, and the drop to the next potential buyer is a doozie.
President Trump’s new tariff regime (always intended as the stick) spooked people for no good reason.
And, guess what? Mexico caved (which they were already working towards as they are not stupid).
Canada effectively is without leadership at the moment so is sitting there in the middle of the road wondering if the juggernaut hurtling towards it is going to obliterate it – and it will if they don’t sort out the problem the Biden administration refused to even contemplate.
And all that guff about Canadian oil? Why do you think “Drill, Baby Drill!” is being shouted so loud? I’d bet within the year US imports from Canada will have more than halved and the refineries reliant on Canadian heavy oil will have remodelled themselves.
The other problem Canada has is that cutting off those supplies would seriously affect their own economy. The price in the States would go up and perhaps add 50cts to a gallon of petrol. America has coped with worse than that before.
You can say what you like about Trump but he is not an incremental policy person. You have to work with him to get the desired outcome or you are toast.
The EU hasn’t worked this out yet (the liberal elite never understands what the man or woman in the street actually wants (Trump does, like it or not).
The UK, which with its usual insouciance has thrown away all the advantages it could have had, is bleating about joining with the EU in a suicide pact. On the present course, Germany will permanently lose between 7% and 10% of its vehicle exports, never mind anything else.
In the good old days in Germany the business sector ran the country and made its own decisions. Not any more. Decisions are made in Brussels by people with no business training or knowledge and the outcome when they run up against someone who has is entirely predictable. And dare I reiterate – it’s the economy stoopid.
What of the crypto market going forward? Hester Pierce, she of new SEC Chair fame, has stripped the crypto enforcement unit, and stated they will be looking at SEC actions in respect of cryptocurrencies sanctioned previously.
On top of that, by executive order, President Trump has created an American sovereign wealth fund which could be the vehicle for the rumoured US crypto strategic reserve.
There doesn’t seem to be any row back on the President’s stated intention to make America the crypto capital of the world. Being extremely old, I remember when America genuinely led the world and other countries either got with the program or got left behind. Whatever else you may think there’s a glimmer of that hegemony on the horizon once more.
Some time ago I mentioned a conference where people were asked what they thought Bitcoin would be priced at in December 2025. The consensus was between $80,000 and $150,000. I see no reason to change my mind on that.
But meme coins? Let me just say I’ve never held any and I’m not about to start buying them now. And the thousands and thousands of others? No comment.
