Cryptocurrency appears to have leapt from the pan and tumbled into the fire

OUT of the frying pan, and into the fire!

I'd be willing to bet that everyone reading this has used this expression at some time in their lives.

As with so many expressions we use (the misquotes from films spring to mind  - “Play it again, Sam” being one that always strikes me) we have very little knowledge of where they come from or what they really are.

It would probably astonish you to hear that the quote at the top of this article was actually first used by a chap called Tertullian of Carthage, who lived from 160AD to 240AD.

Carthage at that time is usually referred to as “The ruins of Carthage” which it definitely was but it still seemed to have a fairly good intellectual life and social cohesion.

We know he was the first person to use it because he wrote it down in his numerous treatise. He wrote extensively of matters to do with Christianity and was the first inventor of The Trinity used to describe father son and Holy Ghost.

I think one could safely assume he knew a thing or two.

I was reminded of the expression the other day when someone used it to describe what was happening in the markets. The only person not bothered (in fact he is probably glowing with glee and excitement) is good old Warren Buffett, who cashed out almost perfectly and has amassed some $334 billion currently sitting in US treasuries.

Unless he has an elephant in his sights (and he might, but who knows) that’s quite a lot of cash to reinvest. Will he put some into crypto? Almost certainly not. Bad luck chaps.

As I’ve said before, crypto enthusiasts are both impatient and greedy, and the fact that the US Government has made clear it is not going to wade into the markets to pick up Bitcoin has clearly disappointed large numbers of crypto gamblers.

I use that expression deliberately. Many years ago a somewhat eccentric stock broker told me that speculation was a mug’s game – especially if you leverage your bet.

In the past couple of weeks simply horrendous sums of money have been lost on positions being closed out on the crypto markets, due to margin calls, and for myself I feel sure that in the short term this will have damaged any recovery.

I have no settled position as to where the market is at the moment. The boosters continue to boost with a somewhat strained narrative and the doomsters gloat and shriek, but personally I doubt either of them are entirely right. What I feel IS true is that the large sums needed to maintain an upward trajectory may have been eroded.

I came across a lovely expression the other day, which was “learned helplessness”. I rather think it applies to myself as I’ve never been good at finding things in shops and tend to stand in the middle and say in a loud voice: “Hello? Can you help me?”. It usually works.

I’m afraid I feel a bit like that at the moment with the markets. As we all know, investors don’t like uncertainty and we have that in spades at the moment on lots of fronts. If we assume that no one actually knows (apart from Buffett of course) the markets will make fools of us all.

Which only means the potential for extraordinary profits is higher than ever before. And that’s not a recommendation, it’s a finger in the air trying to test which way the wind is blowing and hence which way to go.

I would welcome anyone coming up to me (as they do in shops), taking me by the hand and leading me to a display where I would find what I wanted. The only problem is I feel everyone is in the same position.